UK Landlord Forum / Life

I read a lot of property related sites, and is it just me, or are people getting a slowdown confused with a crash? House prices aren't increasing at the same as they were, and they're also currently going through their seasonal xmas/new year slump. That's not really a crash, is it?

Just saying.

I think if it continues downward in the new year it may well become a crash, but it depends on other factors too. A genuine crash rarely involves just one market; if the unemployment rate starts to climb and people lose their jobs and then get slung out of their houses, that's more like a *real* crash.


V

Yeah, the main two factors are employment and interest rates. At least, they were the main factors back in the late 80's.

Sorry, see other post on other thread,
Its all very confusing anyway, we as un qualed up on property people, we are being told many many differant things at the moment, it is amazing what mind games are out there and the tosh we are being fed.  Some of it real and some of it just puts the bejesus up most, hence the amount of product on the market at the moment.
Who do we beleive ?

I believe in you, B!

Ye but i really believe you The Fagsta

I believe people are sheep, and it makes me wish I was better at anticipating their mindless blind panic and in a better position to take advantage of it.


V

Sorry this is a long post reports in Times on Friday showed parts of N. Ireland going up 50% last year!! Some drops in the UK, I think there will be slowdown but not melt down, as long as there isnt the sheep panic scenario, always read the positive press. This years HBOS Report
HOUSE PRICE GROWTH TO EASE TO 0%

•   We forecast house price growth to be flat in 2008.  There has been a steady easing in house price growth during 2007 as the rise in interest rates since August 2006 and negative real earnings growth have curbed demand. The impact of higher interest rates will bite further in the coming months.  A slower housing market must be taken in context, however. House prices have risen by 179% over the past ten years from an average price of £70,000 in late 1997 to £195,000 today. 

•   Strong fundamentals underpin the housing market. Sound economic fundamentals support house prices as the economy remains in good health and employment levels stay high.  The UK economy is expected to deliver its 65th successive quarter of GDP growth during 2008, extending the longest running period of unbroken growth on record.  No other developed nation can match this performance. The level of employment – a key driver of housing demand – is expected to stay at a record high in 2008.

•   A lack of supply will support house prices.  We calculate that the government's target of building three million new homes by 2020 is more than half a million short of what will be required based on current official household projections.  Moreover, these household projections are likely to be revised upwards to reflect the recent significant increase in the government's own population projections. That means the housing shortfall could be even higher than we currently estimate.

•   House price growth is forecast to slow across the UK.  Regionally, modest price growth is expected in southern England and Scotland during 2008. Worsening affordability and weakening economies will lead to a small fall in prices in northern England and the midlands.  These modest declines, however, need to be viewed in the context of the substantial rises recorded in recent years.  For example, house prices in the North have risen by 192% over the past ten years and by 167% in West Midlands.

And if you got bored with my last post, let me simplify it - the greatest property investor in the world Warren BUffett
"Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy"

Quote from: hopson on December 17, 2007, 03:36:33 PM
And if you got bored with my last post, let me simplify it - the greatest property investor in the world Warren BUffett
"Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy"

I like that a lot

There we go, thank you hopson

Quote from: vwilson on December 17, 2007, 03:19:52 PM
I believe people are sheep, and it makes me wish I was better at anticipating their mindless blind panic and in a better position to take advantage of it.


V

Baaaa Baaaa Baaaaa

I think 08 could be a nice time to buy for the longterm BTL investor...

Quote from: propertyfag on December 17, 2007, 03:53:02 PM
I think 08 could be a nice time to buy for the longterm BTL investor...

I agree, and am looking at expanding portfolio of existing and off-plan, lower lending, lower prices, higher rents!!!
As delboy says, this time next year.............................................

HA, I like your avatar. Very "fitting"

Oh to be that slim!

Ye, but not that yellow !

You never know what to believe . But the word 'crash' is used alot .
But you have to just look around you . It is slow ... but its winter ... and with HIP reports in place now etc etc .
It has slowed right now ... but thats not a crash like fag said .

My 'prediction ' if you can call it that .
Is that it will stay the same , property will move alot slower .. then rise slightly into summer and sell abit faster , but not alot .

I think 08 will be a bland even year .